by Cory Finlaster
The Big Megs
By all accounts, the renewable energy market is aglow. A steady stream of studies and news stories reveals how demand for solar panels and wind turbines has outstripped supply. Product manufacturers have backlogs of orders.
Renewables are finally here!
But the reality is that energy from solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal resources represent a tiny fraction of the electricity generated in the U.S.- and the percentage has held fairly steady for the past decade. True, electricity generation from renewables has grown from about 81 billion megawatthours in 2000 to 96 billion in 2006, according to the U.S. Energy Department – but that still represents slightly more than 2 percent of total U.S. electricity generation, about the same percentage as in 1995.
The obvious reason: Overall electricity consumption has grown in lockstep with the growth of renewables, requiring more fossil fuel power plants and making the existing ones work harder than ever.
This is expected to change, according to forecast figures from the Department of Energy, but not by leaps and bounds. If the numbers hold up, electricity from renewable sources will account for more than 3 percent of total U.S. electricity generation in 2008. By 2011, renewables should pass the 4 percent mark, eventually accounting for more than 6 percent of total U.S. electricity generation by 2024.
During this period, the growth rate of non-hydro renewable electricity generation will outpace that of overall U.S. electricity consumption. Between 2008 and 2030, renewable electricity generation is expected to enjoy a 4.4 percent compound annual growth rate, compared to 1.2 percent for overall electricity consumption.
That may seem like healthy growth, but it falls far short of climate experts estimates of the amount of renewable energy needed to offset the need to build more coal-fired power plants in the coming years.
Still, the overall growth rate for renewable electricity generation is estimated to surpass growth of coal and nuclear generation in coming years. Between 2008 and 2030, electricity from coal is projected to grow at an annual compound rate of 1.8 percent; electricity generation from nuclear sources should only grow by just 0.8 percent.
SOURCE: State oF GREEN BUSINeSS 2008, Greener World Media, Inc. (www.greenbiz.com)